Below you will find, published in full and with permission, Doug Sosnik’s latest political memo. Doug was for six years a top political adviser to Bill Clinton, and his insights into American elections and government are among the most valuable, balanced, and sage you will find anywhere. I recommend you read the memo in its entirety. **** If you want to get my Wide World of News newsletter every day, and enjoy the other unique benefits of my Concierge Coverage of the 2024 presidential campaign, please become a member today here. You can read more about Concierge coverage benefits at both the Mario and Luigi tiers here. Current members are already enjoying the insider conversations and other unique benefits of Concierge Coverage. As one member at the Mario tier level wrote me recently:
Act now if you want to join John and the other members. And of course let me know if you have any questions about the packages available. All my best, Mark **** An Update on the 2024 Presidential Campaign By Doug Sosnik | August 4, 2023 Overview It's an understatement to say that we are at the beginning of a presidential campaign under a set of circumstances never seen before in American politics. One frontrunner has been indicted three times (with another one expected any day) since he announced his candidacy, the other the oldest president in history struggling to get his party fully behind his candidacy. This is a rematch that the vast majority of Americans do not want. Nevertheless, in the past six months both Biden and Trump have not just maintained but strengthened their commanding positions for their respective party nominations. Their dominance has more to say about the state of American politics and the structural divisions in our country than it does about the strength of their candidacies. Whether a given race is for a state assembly seat or the White House, elections in 2024 will reflect the continued nationalization of our politics and the deepening divides among Americans by gender and level of education. As in 2020, these trends will find their focus in the one central obsession, Donald Trump. The tactics that Trump has used to solidify his position with the party’s base will likely make him weaker as a general election candidate, and a lot more negative information about him is sure to come out. He is already underperforming with independent voters, who are increasing in number and importance in American politics. There is also a growing group of disillusioned Republican voters who are turning away from the party of Trump. While this group is not nearly large enough to block Trump from the nomination, they demonstrated in 2022 that they can make the difference in key swing states. Nevertheless, it would be a mistake to underestimate Trump’s strength, as was made abundantly clear in the New York Times/Siena poll released earlier in the week. The fact is that while a lot of Americans have serious misgivings about Trump, they support many of his policies. Over 74 million people voted for him in 2020, and despite all of his legal problems, he is running dead-even against Biden. As was demonstrated in 2020, millions of Americans who did not vote in the past can be motivated to turn out for the first time and vote for Trump. At the same time there is a lack of energy on the Democratic side compared to 2020. Despite affection and gratitude towards Biden, the party is only grudgingly getting behind his candidacy. There is also continued democratic slippage with Hispanic voters, and black turnout has declined for the past two election cycles. There is a palpable sense of foreboding within both parties about the upcoming presidential election. Still, with less than six months before the first votes are cast, at least at this point, the country is careening towards a 2024 presidential election rematch that few want to see happen. Mood of the country For the past 18 months polling has consistently shown that 70% of the voters believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction. The combination of COVID, soaring inflation and a lack of faith in our political leaders has clearly taken its toll on the public’s confidence. But there are signs that the mood has begun to brighten with a strong labor market, rising wages, easing inflation and a significant reduction in crime. The stock market is at its highest level since the beginning of last year. These trends are reflected in the July consumer confidence numbers, now at nearly a two-year high. These trends are also reflected in recent polling. In the Times poll, 23% of voters think that the country is headed in the right direction – a dismal number, but a 10-point increase since last summer. While 65% continue to believe that the country is going in the wrong direction, that is a measurable improvement in the past year. The 2024 Presidential Campaign Joe Biden and the Democrats By historical standards, Biden is not in a very strong position to seek re-election, with a job approval in the low 40’s. However, these are not normal times. History has shown that the period between now and the end of the second quarter of election year is the most critical time for a president seeking re-election. It is during this time that the incumbent president needs to show support building for his policies. In an encouraging sign for the Democrats, Biden’s numbers have been modestly trending up as conditions in the country improve. In the Times poll, over 70% of Democrats are now enthusiastic or satisfied that he will be the party’s nominee, which is a 15-point improvement since last summer. Harris has also improved her political position as she has begun to be much more aggressive on the campaign trail. Among Democrats, 67% are enthusiastic or satisfied that she is on the ticket. Despite these relatively positive signs, Democrats continue to have significant concerns about Biden running for re-election. In the Times poll, only 64% of Democrats were ready to commit to voting for Biden in the primary. Driving their concerns is Biden’s age far more than his performance in office. In the Times poll, in response to an open-ended question, 39% cited age as their primary concern with Biden running again. This lack of enthusiasm is reflected in the recently released June FEC reports. Compared to his predecessors, Biden got off to a late start and has not raised as much money in the quarter after announcing for reelection. In the report, Biden and the Democrats raised only $72 million, which is $14 million less than Obama at this point in 2011 and well below the $108 million collected by Trump in 2019. Equally troubling, Biden only raised $10 million dollars from donations of $200 or less, which is less than half of the $21 million that Obama raised at this point in 2011. It is unlikely that Hunter Biden and his problems will have an impact on the outcome of the election. However, if the White House staff does not have the authority to manage him, Hunter could become a serious campaign liability It is inexplicable how Hunter has been allowed to parade around White House State dinners and fly so conspicuously on Air Force One. Regardless, the “Hunter Biden problem” will surely take an emotional toll on the president and his staff. The Republicans: Trump and the rest of the field
Despite Trump’s legal travails, he has solidified his support in the Republican Party and has consistently maintained a commanding lead against a field of 12 challengers. Trump is the leader of a political movement that is much deeper and long lasting than merely a campaign for president. Since World War II there have been only two other political movements that led to the White House — Reagan’s in 1980 and Obama’s in 2008. Despite losing the White House in 2020, the Trump movement continued to build during that campaign, and he gained 12 million more votes compared to 2016. His 2024 operation has demonstrated that he clearly learned from his 2020 loss. Trump ‘24 is focused and disciplined in its approach to driving his narrative, laying out his policies, tearing down his opponents, raising large amounts of small-dollar donations and working the system to accrue the delegates necessary to get the nomination. In 2016 Trump ran as an insurgent candidate against the long dominant establishment. As president he increasingly took control of the political apparatus of the Republican Party. Since leaving office, Trump has continued to build support with the grassroots in the GOP. This consolidation of power has enabled him to gain a political advantage in collecting delegates by increasing the number of winner-take-all primaries as well as raising the minimum threshold to gain delegates. Trump’s consolidation of political support within the Republican Party along with his ability to dominate the news cycles has made it difficult for any of his opponents to break through and get traction with the voters. The unofficial kickoff to the Republican nomination will be the first debate, on August 23rd in Milwaukee, televised by FOX News. At this point, neither former Vice President Mike Pence nor former Governor Asa Hutchinson have reached the necessary fundraising and polling thresholds to earn a spot on the stage in Milwaukee. Trump has not indicated whether he will participate in the debate. The second debate, televised by CNN, is scheduled for September 27th at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. In an effort to reduce the number of participants, the threshold for eligibility will be increased from the first debate. The various legal proceedings against Trump will begin just as the campaign heats up. Trump is due back in court on August 28th to get the trial date for the January 6th trial, which is likely to be set for sometime early next year
A Biden/Trump 2024 Rematch Current polling shows that the rematch most Americans do not want will result in a very close election. The Times poll shows the race to be a dead hit with 14% not currently prepared to support either candidate. When pressed, Biden only has a two-point lead with these voters. The Times poll also shows that we remain a center-right country, with 37% of respondents considering themselves moderate, 35% conservative and only 23% liberal. Against this backdrop, the country remains deeply divided along the demographic fault lines that formed in the 2016 election and deepened during Trump’s Presidency. Education is now the best predictor of voting at all levels of government. In the Times poll, there is a 44-point swing of support between college-educated white voters (Biden +15) and non-college whites (Trump +29). Trump has also reduced Biden’s support to 16 points with non-white, non-college voters. In a CNN poll released this week, only 49% of people of color who do not have a college degree trust Biden more than Congress to deal with the major issues of the day, which is a 15-point drop since the end of last year.In 2020 Trump gained eight points with Hispanic voters compared to 2016 and is now trailing Biden by only three points in the Times poll. In the CNN poll, Biden only had a 40% job approval with Hispanic voters. He is currently getting 12% of the black vote compared to Biden’s 71%, with 17% not committing to either candidate. With the recent Supreme Court ruling on abortion, the gender gap has reemerged as a major demographic factor in American politics. In the Times poll there is a 26-point gender gap (Biden +12 with women and Trump +14 with men). That is a significant increase compared to the nine-point difference in the PEW 2020 post-election poll of validated voters.
The 2024 Electoral College Map With all politics now national rather than local, results at the state and local level mirror the presidential vote. As a result of this trend, there are currently 39 states where one party controls the governorship as well as the state legislature. Forty states have voted for the same party for the last four presidential elections. We are at the point where there are at most eight competitive states left in the country. As we get closer to the election, it is only the polling in these states, not at the national level, that will paint the most accurate picture of the state of the race. In the recently released Cook Political Report, the Democrats are projected to start the campaign leading with 247 electoral votes, while the Republicans are favored to win 235 electoral votes. Only four states – Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – are rated toss-ups. The fight for control of Congress Senate The Democrats hold a two-seat majority in the Senate and are defending a very difficult map in 2024. They hold all of the eight seats considered competitive. Trump carried three of the competitive states - Montana, Ohio and West Virginia – by overwhelming margins in 2020, while Biden narrowly carried the remaining five - Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. Due largely to poor Republican candidates and the energizing impact from the Dobbs decision, the Democrats have been able to narrowly control the Senate in the last two election cycles. Their chances to hold it again in 2024 will likely be determined by the quality of candidates that the Republicans field. So far, the GOP has enjoyed recruitment successes in Montana, Nevada, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, getting, at least on paper, candidates who might well be competitive in a general election. House The GOP took a narrow five-seat majority after picking up nine seats in 2022. They are defending 18 districts carried by Biden in 2020 (compared to only five Democratically held seats carried by Trump). These Republican incumbents will be particularly vulnerable if they are forced to vote on symbolic right-wing measures pushed by the Freedom Caucus that have zero chance of ever becoming law over the president’s objections. In the most recent Cook Political report the Republicans are defending 21 of the most competitive districts compared to 24 held by the Democrats. Ten of these Republican-held seats are in California and New York, while there are 10 Democratic seats at risk in North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania. A look ahead to September in Congress With Congress in recess until after Labor Day, September promises to be tumultuous, with a possible government shutdown. Complicating matters further, several additional must-pass pieces of legislation have September 30thdeadlines, including the reauthorization of the Federal Aviation Administration and the extension of the Farm Bill. There are also several defense-related fights that don’t appear anywhere near resolution, including passage of the National Defense Authorization Authority (NDAA) and additional funding for Ukraine, as well as Senator Tuberville’s hold on over 300 military nominees over the issue of abortion. Making matters even more difficult, the divisions between Senate and House Republicans are as wide and deep as their disagreements with Biden and the Democrats. For the Republicans, September promises to be Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s steepest challenge since becoming Leader. In the Senate, the health of Minority Leader McConnell will be closely watched since he will be instrumental in bridging the divisions within the Republican Party as well as with the Democrats. The differences between the Republicans in the House and Senate are primarily around spending and putting anti-woke policy riders on spending bills. The recently passed bipartisan debt-limit bill suspends the debt ceiling for two years and caps the amount of money that the government is allowed to borrow during that period while establishing spending targets. A significant number of Republicans in the House view this agreement as a ceiling not a floor and want to go back to 2022 spending levels, with cuts totaling $115 billion dollars. The narrowly controlled Republican House has only approved one of the 12 government-funding bills for Military Construction and Veterans affairs, but it will almost certainly be blocked in the Senate. While the Senate has passed all 12 appropriations bills in committee with near unanimous bipartisan support, none of these bills has passed the full Senate. If there is no deal on funding for next year, the government will shut down for the first time since 2018. History has shown that when Congress shuts down the federal government, they will pay the political price in the next election.
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