By: David Scott Mathieson
Although Myanmar’s State Administration Council (SAC) regime – the junta that overthrew civilian government in 2021 – on May 20 lost two Mi-17 transport helicopters to suicide drones reportedly operated by the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in ongoing heavy fighting around the Myanmar army Military Operations Command 21 in the far north on May 20, closer to home the unprecedented assassination of retired Brigadier General Cho Tun Aung outside his house in the northern suburb of Mayangone Township in Yangon on May 22 would have rattled the senior military officer classes. The killing raises two key questions: the first, whether the assassination is an indication of more targeted killings of former or current members of the military to come. Urban warfare has undulated in the four years of the coup, with multiple assassinations of officials of the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), and scores of local administrative officials targeted for enforcing taxation, and in the past year, for facilitating forcible recruitment into the military after the Military Service Law was enacted in February 2024, but these killings have been haphazard. The second question is over the confidence of the SAC inner circle, and how much high-profile assassinations rattle the confidence of the senior leadership and their dwindling civilian support base. Over four years of fighting, there haven’t been as many successful targeted killings of senior military officials. ‘Soft target’ Cho Tun Aung could be deemed a ‘soft target’ without a security detail, and it remains to be seen if other former generals will seek augmented protection from any potential rise in targeting by UGs and PDFs. The retired general, who also served as Myanmar’s ambassador to Cambodia, was gunned down by an anti-regime group called the ‘Golden Valley Warriors’, who released a statement on their Facebook page soon after the event. The underground group claimed that Cho Tun Aung had a continued role teaching at the military National Defense College, especially what it claimed was “Internal Security and Counter Terrorism.” Myanmar media reported that the retired general also had a role in assisting the SAC with the formation of militia units to fight against anti-regime resistance forces across the country. The Golden Valley Warriors aren’t well known among the constellation of underground and People’s Defense Force (PDF) groups operating in urban areas, many of which have colorful and evocative names but extremely blurred command and control lines. The group claims on its Facebook page to have previously assassinated an official of the General Administration Department (GAD) in Hlaing Thayar on the outskirts of Yangon in October 2024. The group also released a series of graphics on the day of the killing showing Cho Tun Aung at various events, and one, in fully military uniform, at what appears to be Armed Forces Day in Naypyidaw, alongside other generals with a slogan in Burma that said “Ready to be Hunted-The Military Leaders of the SAC.” Another showed a QR code for NUGPay to donate to the Golden Valley Warriors. NUGPay is a blockchain digital payment system established by the opposition National Unity Government, in which donations can be made to a number of groups, both armed and political, and high-profile assassinations are partly pursued to drive income for individual UGs: a kind of crowdfunding for political hits. Golden Valley is one of Yangon’s most affluent suburbs, which has many retired generals and their families, and offices of several United Nations embassies, several national embassies, and ambassadors’ residences, and is seen as a post-2021 coup safe haven for Myanmar elites and foreigners. Close by, Thuwanna Township is also known as ‘Bogyoke ywar’, or ‘Generals village.’ State-run media has not covered the assassination. The only acknowledgement was a notice in the Myanmar language Myanmar Alin newspaper of Cho Tun Aung’s funeral on Saturday. Previous high level assassinations include retired Brigadier General and also former ambassador Ohn Thwin in September 2022, and head of security for Yangon airport, former army major Ye Khine in June 2023. Underground groups attempted to kill the deputy governor of the Central Bank in April 2022, Daw Than Than Swe, but she survived after being shot multiple times in the head. There were initial reports that the junta’s second in command, Vice Senior General Soe Win was assassinated by a drone strike while visiting the military Southeast Command in April 2024, but this didn’t succeed, although the drone strike by resistance forces did happen. Elections could trigger more killings The SAC has markedly increased its propaganda messaging over plans for an election at the end of 2025. While exact details are still not public, the narrative is always tied to achieving the requisite peace and security from ‘terrorist’ attacks by the NUG. Candidates and officials of the more than 50 political parties registered to contest the elections, both nationally and by state and region, could potentially become targets of assassination. In a speech to army officers in Kengtung in Eastern Shan State in recent days, SAC leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing stated that the military “must be hardcore to develop the nation, successfully hold the election and ensure peace and stability in the State.” Despite heavy battlefield losses, especially over the past 18 months of heavy fighting, and the jolt of losing two helicopters in one day, the fall of significant territory across Myanmar, and the loss of major arms, ammunition, and material to the constellation of revolutionary actors, the military is still holding on. However, a brazen daytime assassination in the middle of Yangon must chip away at their sense of invulnerability. David Scott Mathieson is an independent analyst working on conflict, humanitarian, and human rights issues in Myanmar and a regular contributor to Asia Sentinel This is among the stories/excerpts we choose to make widely available.If you wish to get the full Asia Sentinel experience and access more exclusive content, please do subscribe to us for US$10/month or US$100/year.
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