Marc Chaikin of Chaikin Analytics shares seven bullish stock picks across AI infrastructure and semiconductors while warning investors to... ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
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| Written by Bridget Bennett 
The S&P 500 has pushed to a new all-time high, and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, has seen its longest winning streak on record, in terms of consecutively higher closes. Investors everywhere are asking the same question: Is it safe to buy? Marc Chaikin, founder of Chaikin Analytics and creator of the Power Gauge stock rating system, says the answer depends on where you look. The rally is real, but so are the risks still lurking beneath the surface. Chaikin sees a market running on hope that could stumble at the first sign of disappointment. A Rally Built on Ceasefire Hopes—Now Getting a Reality CheckThe catalyst for the market's V-shaped recovery was last week's announcement of ceasefire negotiations tied to the Iran conflict. That news pushed the S&P 500 through its 50-day and 200-day moving averages in a single session, clearing resistance levels that had capped prices for weeks. At the time of Chaikin's analysis, neither pillar of the bull case was firmly in place—no agreed-upon ceasefire terms existed, and the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed to normal commercial traffic. Since then, the situation has shifted: an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire has taken effect, and Iran's Foreign Minister declared the Strait "completely open" for commercial vessels for the duration of the ceasefire. Whether that progress holds remains the open question. Chaikin's broader point still applies: markets that climb on optimism tend to be vulnerable when the details disappoint. The Strait may be open today, but the underlying conflict is far from resolved. 2 Sectors Worth Trimming: Software and CybersecurityRather than chasing the rally, Chaikin sees this as a window to prune weak positions—and two sectors top his sell list. Software stocks, which once comprised 16% of the S&P 500, now represent roughly 8%. Names like Salesforce (NYSE: CRM), Atlassian (NASDAQ: TEAM), and Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE) have underperformed the broader market for over nine months. The Power Gauge rates many of these names bearish, and Chaikin's proprietary money flow data shows institutional selling has been persistent. The reason is structural: advances in AI—from Anthropic to OpenAI to Google and Meta—are putting real pressure on the SaaS business model that powered these stocks for two decades. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) doesn't escape scrutiny either. The stock carries a neutral Power Gauge rating and remains more than 20% below its October peak despite rallying from under $360 to above $400. Chaikin sees Microsoft and the Magnificent Seven broadly as legacy beneficiaries now facing competitive headwinds from the next wave of AI innovation. Cybersecurity is the other sector Chaikin would trim. Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ: PANW) has been in a clear downtrend, and the bearish case goes beyond technicals. Anthropic's Claude Mythos Preview—announced earlier this month—demonstrated the ability to discover thousands of zero-day vulnerabilities across major operating systems and browsers, exposing flaws in infrastructure that legacy cybersecurity firms had certified as secure. That kind of disruption creates a credibility problem for incumbents. If AI can find the back doors that existing platforms missed, the market will eventually reprice who deserves to own the cybersecurity franchise. Semiconductors: Bullish, But Buy the PullbackThe semiconductor space has been the backbone of this rally, and Chaikin remains constructive on the group—with a caveat. These names have run too far, too fast to chase at current levels. NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) is recovering after a sharp drawdown, and Chaikin acknowledges it as the dominant force in AI chips. But the more compelling opportunities may sit further down the supply chain. Lam Research (NASDAQ: LRCX) is critical to the semiconductor manufacturing process, holding near-duopoly positioning in etch and deposition equipment. The stock has rallied sharply, but a pullback toward its moving averages could offer a cleaner entry. Onto Innovation (NYSE: ONTO) specializes in quality control for semiconductor manufacturing and has carried a bullish Power Gauge rating since last August. Shares have surged from around $100 to above $280, but Chaikin says a retreat toward the stock's 21-day average would make it attractive again. B. Riley recently raised its price target on the stock to $310. The AI Buildout's Picks and ShovelsBeyond chips, Chaikin is focused on the physical infrastructure powering AI—the construction, cooling, and data transport layers of the buildout. Quanta Services (NYSE: PWR) has been building power plants and clearing land for electric utilities for decades. With AI data centers demanding enormous new power capacity, Quanta sits at the intersection of energy infrastructure and AI demand. The stock recently hit an all-time high near $596, so patience for a pullback is warranted. Comfort Systems USA (NYSE: FIX) handles the cooling and HVAC systems that keep data centers operational—a constraint that only tightens as compute density rises. The company has delivered 35% quarterly revenue growth and has strong profitability relative to peers. Inside the data centers, moving information at speed is the bottleneck. Optical networking stocks have been on fire, and Chaikin recently took a quick 15% profit in Coherent (NYSE: COHR) after a two-week hold. The stock has continued climbing, recently hitting an all-time high above $310 after being added to the S&P 500 in March. Ciena (NYSE: CIEN) is another name in this space, with first-quarter revenue up 33% year-over-year and raised full-year guidance to as much as $6.3 billion. Both are stocks Chaikin would look to re-enter on a pullback. Copper, Not Silver, Fuels the WiringFinally, the raw materials layer matters. Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) is the world's largest publicly traded copper miner, and copper is essential to the fiber optic wiring and internal infrastructure of data centers. The stock has carried a bullish Power Gauge rating dating back to last year and recently set a new all-time high near $70 before pulling back. Freeport also has a major mine offline that is expected to come back into production this fall—a potential catalyst that could add meaningful supply to a copper market already running tight. Stay Disciplined as the Market Tests New HighsThe setup is compelling: AI demand is real, the infrastructure buildout could last five years or more, and these seven names are positioned at critical points along the supply chain. But with the S&P sitting at all-time highs on ceasefire optimism while the Strait of Hormuz remains contested, Chaikin's message is clear—don't chase the rally. Identify the stocks doing differentiated work, wait for pullbacks, and let discipline do the heavy lifting.  Read This Story Online |
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| Written by Nathan Reiff 
As SpaceX moves toward what may be the largest IPO in history, investors have turned their attention to the skies. The enthusiasm surrounding Elon Musk's latest company to enter the public trading sphere could very well boost share prices industry-wide, even for potential rivals. Investors unsure of where to focus their exposure in the space industry can simplify the process with a growing number of space-themed exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These vehicles offer broad access to space stocks and often utilize unique niche strategies for targeted exposure to one corner of the industry or another. Wide Access to Industrials and Telecomm Companies in the Space Industry Via UFOThe Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ: UFO) may be a strong well-rounded option for investors looking for broad exposure to the space industry. The fund invests its half a billion dollars in assets in companies providing ground equipment for satellite systems, rocket and satellite operations and manufacturing, telecommunications and broadcasting, imagery, and intelligence services, among others. UFO gives a balanced access to two of the key sectors in the space industry—industrials and communications. Across about 50 holdings, no single stock stands out by a wide margin, with the heaviest allocation going to satellite imagery firm Planet Labs PBC (NYSE: PL) at roughly 6.3% of the portfolio. Among the space ETFs on our list, UFO dominates in trading volume, making it one of the more liquid ETFs in the space industry. In exchange, it has a somewhat higher expense ratio than some of its alternatives, and the annual fee is 0.75%. That may be especially worthwhile, though, during bull runs: the fund has returned about 40% year-to-date (YTD). "Final Frontiers" of Space and the Deep Sea With ROKTA less-expensive and narrower fund than UFO, the SPDR Kensho Final Frontiers ETF (NYSEARCA: ROKT) targets about three dozen companies operating at the "final frontiers" of space and the deep sea. While ROKT is not, therefore, a pure-play space ETF, it leans heavily on space companies. Its largest holding at 7.4%, coincidentally, is also PL. Like UFO, ROKT is a passively managed fund that tracks an index of stocks. Uniquely, though, the underlying index in the case of ROKT uses artificial intelligence and quantitative weighting to balance its portfolio. Just over half of invested assets are allocated to aerospace and defense companies, although the fund also holds research firms, oil and gas equipment names, electronic component and equipment firms, and more. It has been a good start to the year for ROKT as well, although its performance comes up slightly shy of UFO's. The fund has returned about 35% YTD. The expense ratio of 0.45% helps to set this fund apart from some of its costlier competitors as well. However, ROKT has both the lowest assets under management and the smallest average trading volume of the space funds we're looking at, so it may be less suitable for active investors or those otherwise concerned with liquidity. An Actively Managed Alternative With a Highly Focused PortfolioThe ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (BATS: ARKX) stands out as the only actively managed space ETF on this list. It has a global purview, which allows it a broader range of companies for potential inclusion than either of the funds above (UFO aims for developed markets and ROKT just includes U.S.-listed names). ARKX has over $800 million in managed assets and a solid one-month average trading volume close to 700,000, which may appeal to investors finding ROKT too small or lightly traded. In exchange for the active management, however, the fund has an expense ratio of 0.75%, in line with UFO above. This fund also has the narrowest portfolio of the three, with only 33 holdings, and it leans fairly heavily on a handful of defense companies, including L3Harris Technologies Inc. (NYSE: LHX) and Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. (NASDAQ: KTOS). By selecting a smaller portfolio from a deeper pool of potential holdings, ARKX may make the case that it is selecting the highest-quality names possible. Its breadth of companies includes those directly involved in the space industry—autonomous mobility and intelligent device firms, for instance, and reusable rockets—and those with applications both inside and outside of the industry. This latter category also includes 3D printing companies, adaptive robotics stocks, and firms contributing to advances in neural networks, for instance. ARKX has the lowest return YTD, having risen by only 15% during that period. However, in the last year, it has climbed by 90%, far ahead of the broader market, although still not as impressive as either of the other funds above over that longer timeframe. Read This Story Online |
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| Written by Peter Frank 
Take a company that blends fintech, artificial intelligence (AI), consumer lending, and asset-backed securities (ABS), and investors can expect some volatility. Pagaya Technologies (NASDAQ: PGY) has proven just that. Last year, the company—which has dual headquarters in New York and Tel Aviv—posted its first annual profit since going public in June 2022. Revenue grew by 26%, which has analysts pointing to more than 100% upside potential from current prices. Yet the stock has fallen by roughly two-thirds since September and about 30% this year. However, the plunge in share price doesn’t signal a broken business. Rather, it’s almost to be expected for a high-risk, high-reward fintech caught in an unsure market. For investors willing to ride along, the gap between where the stock trades today and where analysts think it should be in a year is tough to ignore. How Pagaya’s AI-Driven Model WorksPagaya is not a bank or a lender in the traditional sense. It operates an AI-powered network that sits between lenders and the institutional investors who buy consumer loans packages in the form of ABS. When a borrower applies for a personal loan, auto financing, or point-of-sale loan through one of Pagaya’s partners and isn't approved by a lender, Pagaya’s AI steps in. It evaluates the application, and if accepted, routes the loan into a securitization that it then structures and sells to investors. Rather than sitting on the credit risk, Pagaya earns a fee on each loan it moves along. Overall, the platform has evaluated over $3.5 trillion in loan applications since its founding and sold more than $34 billion in personal loan ABS. Financial Performance Shows a Turning PointSince its founding in 2016, Pagaya has pursued a growth story with a profitability challenge. That changed last year. The company swung from a $401 million loss in 2024 to an $81 million profit in 2025. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization jumped 76% to $371 million. Revenue increased 26% to $1.3 billion. And network volume—the total of loans flowing through the platform—grew 9% to $10.5 billion. Both results were helped by the company’s move to expand its originations in auto and point-of-sale loans beyond a focus on personal loans. Q4 2025 was particularly strong. Fourth-quarter revenue and other income rose 20% year-over-year to $335 million. Generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) net income of $34 million was a quarterly record and at the high end of Pagaya’s own guidance. Earnings per share came in at 80 cents, solidly above analysts' forecasts for 75 cents per share. For 2026, management said it expects network volume to jump from $11.25 billion to $13 billion . Revenue is slated for between $1.4 billion and $1.575 billion, suggesting another year of solid growth. GAAP net income is projected to be $100 million to $150 million. Pagay's Stock Volatility Tells a Fintech StoryIn many ways, the rough path of the company’s stock has been similar to that of others in fintech. After soaring at its IPO in 2022, Pagaya saw its shares plunge, eventually leading to a 1-for-12 reverse stock split in 2024 to help boost its stock price. In 2025, shares rebounded, growing roughly fourfold through September, when PGY hit its 52-week high of nearly $45. This year, however, the stock has lost roughly one-third since the start of the year and more than 45% since a recent high in January. Despite the ups and downs, most analysts remain bullish. Of the 12 analysts issuing ratings, 10 assign the stock a Buy rating while two assign it a Hold rating. Overall, the consensus is a Moderate Buy rating with an average target of $33.11, which means around 130% upside from current prices. Risks Center on Credit Markets and CompetitionYet skepticism is understandable. Pagaya’s business model depends on institutional investors' appetite to keep buying its ABS, and lending partners need to keep routing loan applications through its network. A credit market disruption or a spike in consumer loan defaults could seriously cut back both channels. So far this year, though, the capital markets side of the story has stayed healthy. In April, Pagaya closed an $800 million consumer loan ABS sale and completed its first auto ABS of the year. The consumer loan offering was increased by 33% because of strong institutional demand, the company said. It should also be noted that, with equity-based compensation being substantial, insider selling following the 2025 run-up has been seen in SEC filings. Pagaya doesn't pay a dividend, so for investors the bet is primarily on growth. And competition from banks building in-house AI credit models—as well as rival platforms—can quickly hit Pagaya’s results. A High-Risk Bet With Meaningful Upside PotentialPagaya, like others in its industry, is not a stock for conservative investors. The volatility very well could continue. Its business model is a bit complex, and one down credit cycle with the financial sector pulling back could seriously damper results. But for investors with a higher risk tolerance who believe AI-driven consumer lending is an embedded growth story, Pagaya’s first-year profitability, strong 2026 guidance, active ABS issuance, and a stock trading at less than half of analyst targets makes it worth serious consideration. The company seems to have turned the corner. Whether the stock follows is a question that remains. Read This Story Online |
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