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Meta vs OpenAI: Is Sora a True Threat to Meta's Dominance?
Written by Leo Miller. Published 10/20/2025.
Key Points
- OpenAI just released a new social media app, Sora, creating a new threat to Meta Platforms.
- A Wall Street analyst lowered their Meta price target after Sora's release, noting that Meta could face its "ChatGPT moment."
- However, Meta has succeeded amid new social media entrants in the past. The company can fend off even the likes of OpenAI.
OpenAI's ChatGPT has undeniably taken the world by storm. The National Bureau of Economic Research believes that around 700 million people, or 10% of the world's population, used ChatGPT as of July 2025. That is an incredible feat for a platform that launched in November 2022. Ultimately, these researchers conclude that no new technology has ever seen such rapid global adoption.
ChatGPT sparked extensive investor concern around Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL). Some feared the platform would weaken Alphabet's Google Search business by giving people a more intelligent way to search the internet. Yet Alphabet has continued to perform well: Google Search revenues have increased 27% since Q4 2022, and the stock is up roughly 150% since the end of November 2022.
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Still, at least one Wall Street analyst worries that OpenAI's latest innovation could hurt another Magnificent Seven stock: Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META). Analysts at MoffettNathanson recently lowered their Meta price target after OpenAI released its Sora app. MoffettNathanson suggested that Sora could threaten Meta in the same way ChatGPT was viewed as a threat to Alphabet. Below, we break down that analyst's claims and assess how serious a threat Sora might be.
Sora: OpenAI's New Social Media App Breaks Onto the Scene
Sora is a social media application similar to TikTok, allowing users to create, discover, and share short-form videos. However, all the videos are generated by artificial intelligence (AI). Notably, users can blend their friends and celebrities into videos—something that contrasts with Meta's competing AI-generated video platform, Vibes. That feature helped make Sora initially more popular than Vibes, since users enjoyed incorporating others into their content.
MoffettNathanson believes Sora could divert attention from Meta's apps and damage the growth of Meta's advertising business. That concern is understandable: Sora recorded one million downloads in just five days after its Sept. 30 release—faster than ChatGPT's early growth. Still, there are several reasons to think Meta can withstand Sora's rise.
Meta Has Withstood Past Threats, and Can Do So Again
Despite the rapid adoption of ChatGPT and Sora, both pale compared with Meta's massive user base. The company has just under 3.5 billion users, roughly five times ChatGPT's reported audience. With that scale already in place, Meta has a major advantage when rolling out and scaling new products. MoffettNathanson describes social media as a "zero-sum competition for leisure time," arguing new entrants mainly extract engagement from incumbents. Yet the firm also notes that Meta has retained market share even as apps like TikTok and Snapchat emerged—points that weaken the case that Sora will significantly hinder Meta.
Moreover, Meta can do to Sora what it did to TikTok: replicate its successful features. Instagram Reels became a key growth driver for Meta after the company moved into the short-form video space TikTok pioneered. Even if users prefer Sora over Vibes today, Meta can incorporate Sora's best features into its own products. The company is working to develop proprietary models to make this easier, since Vibes currently relies on third-party models. Although that will require time and investment, Meta's commitment to building AI capabilities is among the strongest in the industry.
Despite Concern, MoffettNathanson Still Sees Strong Upside in Meta
Sora could plausibly pull attention away from Meta's apps in the short term, which might hurt financial results and sentiment around the stock. However, investors likely won't know the impact for several months. The tech giant's Q3 earnings report, slated for Oct. 29, covers the three months ended Sept. 30. Because OpenAI released Sora that same day, the Q3 results should not reflect any potential effects. Meta's Q4 report in late January or early February 2026 will likely be far more telling.
It's also worth noting that MoffettNathanson remains constructive on Meta despite trimming its target. The firm reduced its target by $40 following Sora's release, setting it at $890—still well above the broader consensus and implying significant upside from recent trading levels.
Ultimately, as MoffettNathanson and other analysts have noted, Sora is not an "immediate existential threat" to Meta. Nevertheless, Sora's emergence is a risk factor worth watching in the months ahead.
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