|
Hello, Thanks for signing up for MarketBeat Daily Ratings—we’re excited to have you on board. Every weekday, you’ll get a curated summary of new “Buy” and “Sell” ratings from Wall Street’s top-rated analysts, the latest stock news, and bonus investing content—all delivered straight to your inbox. You’re just two quick steps away from completing your sign-up: 1. Make sure our emails go to your inboxGmail users:
Mobile: Tap the three dots (…) in the top right and select Move to Inbox or Move to Primary
Desktop: Click the folder icon at the top and select Move to Inbox or Primary Apple Mail users:
Tap our email address at the top (next to From: on mobile), then select Add to VIP Other providers:
Reply to this message and add newsletters@analystratings.net to your contacts 2. Confirm your subscriptionClick this link to confirm your subscription. This verifies your account and ensures you receive your newsletters without interruption instead of getting stuck in your spam filter. Confirm your subscription here. After you confirm, feel free to download our popular free report, "7 Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever" with this link. Thanks again for subscribing—we look forward to being part of your investing journey. 
Matthew Paulson
Founder and CEO, MarketBeat. P.S. If you didn’t mean to subscribe, no problem—you can unsubscribe here.
More Reading from MarketBeat.com
This AI Lender Has Big Upside Potential—And Big RisksWritten by Peter Frank. Published: 4/19/2026. 
Key Points
- Pagaya connects lenders and investors using AI to expand credit access without holding loans on its balance sheet.
- The company reached profitability in 2025, marking a major shift after years of losses.
- Analysts see around 133% upside, but the stock remains highly volatile and sensitive to credit markets.
- Special Report: Elon Musk’s $1 Quadrillion AI IPO
Combine fintech, artificial intelligence (AI), consumer lending, and asset-backed securities (ABS), and investors should expect volatility. Pagaya Technologies (NASDAQ: PGY) has provided exactly that. Last year, the company—which has dual headquarters in New York and Tel Aviv—posted its first annual profit since going public in June 2022. Revenue grew 26%, prompting analysts to point to more than 100% upside potential from current prices. Yet the stock has fallen roughly two-thirds since September and about 30% so far this year.
For a moment…
Forget about Trump’s ties to Israel.
Forget about reports of Iran’s nuclear program.
Because my research has led me to believe we’re risking World War 3 with Iran for a completely different reason. Click here to find out what it is.
That plunge in share price doesn’t necessarily signal a broken business. Instead, it’s unsurprising for a high-risk, high-reward fintech operating in an uncertain market. For investors willing to ride out the volatility, the gap between today’s share price and analysts’ one-year targets is hard to ignore. How Pagaya’s AI-Driven Model WorksPagaya is not a bank or a traditional lender. It operates an AI-powered network that sits between originators and the institutional investors who buy consumer loan packages in the form of ABS. When a borrower applies for a personal loan, auto financing, or point-of-sale financing through one of Pagaya’s partners and isn't approved by the lender, Pagaya’s AI evaluates the application. If accepted, it routes the loan into a securitization that Pagaya structures and sells to investors. Rather than holding the credit risk, Pagaya earns a fee for each loan it moves along. Overall, the platform has evaluated more than $3.5 trillion in loan applications since inception and sold over $34 billion in personal-loan ABS. Financial Performance Shows a Turning PointSince its founding in 2016, Pagaya pursued a growth story while working toward profitability. That shifted last year. The company swung from a $401 million loss in 2024 to an $81 million profit in 2025. Adjusted EBITDA rose 76% to $371 million. Revenue increased 26% to $1.3 billion, and network volume—the total of loans flowing through the platform—grew 9% to $10.5 billion. These results were aided by the company expanding originations in auto and point-of-sale loans beyond its earlier focus on personal loans. Q4 2025 was particularly strong. Fourth-quarter revenue and other income rose 20% year-over-year to $335 million. Generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) net income of $34 million set a quarterly record and landed at the high end of Pagaya’s guidance. Earnings per share came in at $0.80, comfortably above analysts' forecasts of $0.75 per share. For 2026, management expects network volume to rise from $11.25 billion to $13 billion. Revenue is forecast between $1.4 billion and $1.575 billion, indicating another year of solid growth. GAAP net income is projected at $100 million to $150 million. Pagaya's Stock Volatility Tells a Fintech StoryThe company’s stock has followed a familiar fintech arc. After a strong IPO in 2022, Pagaya’s shares plunged, prompting a 1-for-12 reverse stock split in 2024 to help bolster the trading price. In 2025, shares rebounded, roughly quadrupling through September when PGY hit a 52-week high near $45. This year, however, the stock has declined about one-third since the start of the year and more than 45% from a recent high in January. Despite the volatility, most analysts remain bullish. Of the 12 analysts covering the company, 10 rate the stock a Buy and two rate it a Hold. The consensus is a Moderate Buy with an average target of $33.11, implying roughly 130% upside from current prices. Risks Center on Credit Markets and CompetitionSkepticism is understandable. Pagaya’s model depends on institutional investors continuing to buy its ABS and on lending partners routing applications through its network. A disruption in credit markets or a spike in consumer loan defaults could significantly reduce both channels. So far this year, the capital markets side has remained healthy. In April, Pagaya closed an $800 million consumer-loan ABS sale and completed its first auto ABS of the year. The consumer offering was increased by 33% because of strong institutional demand, the company said. It’s also worth noting that equity-based compensation is substantial, and insider selling after the 2025 run-up has appeared in SEC filings. Pagaya does not pay a dividend, so investors are primarily betting on growth. Competition from banks building in-house AI credit models, as well as rival platforms, could quickly pressure Pagaya’s results. A High-Risk Bet With Meaningful Upside PotentialPagaya is not a stock for conservative investors. The volatility could continue; its business model is complex, and a downturn in the financial sector or credit cycle could materially dampen results. But for investors with a higher risk tolerance who believe AI-driven consumer lending is a durable growth theme, Pagaya’s first-year profitability, solid 2026 guidance, active ABS issuance, and a stock trading well below analyst targets make it worth consideration. The company appears to have turned a corner; whether the stock follows remains to be seen. |
